Recently, there was an epochal decision Vladimir Putin - transfer (as soon as possible) settlements for rubles for the supply of natural gas to Europe.

In his appeal, he said that the dollar and the euro at the moment lost all confidence in themselves when they froze the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Russia.

Accordingly, not to continue to expose themselves to this risk, it was decided to move to trade in rubles. But it changes all the rules of the game.

What if they refuse? Do not refuse, and that's why.

Why not refuse?

Russia in 2021 provided 45% of the total import of natural gas in the EU. And the energy consumption of Europe is formed from: oil and petroleum products - 36.3%, natural gas - 22.3% (half of it supplies Russia).

Why will they hardly abandon the natural gas of Russia? To do this, we analyze the completion of storage facilities (data on March 9, 2022).

The greatest completion of storage facilities in the United Kingdom is 78%, in Germany - by 25% (and this is the main economy of Europe), the Netherlands - by 20%, Belgium - by 17%, Croatia - 16%, Austria - by 14%.

Also, due to the high cost of natural gas on the spot market, they did not want to fill their repositors at such expensive prices.

The population of European countries is at the lowest historical levels. And by the next heating season they will be obliged to increase stocks.

As a result, the truths and inconsistencies they will need to replace about 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas, which comes from Russia.

At the moment, the EU develops various strategies to reduce dependence on Russian gas, and then completely refuse him. For example, Germany will build 2 terminals for accepting liquefied natural gas.

What will require investment for this? Approximately 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year requires $ 8-10 billion investment. That is, all these possible decisions will only lead to the fact that the EU costs to generate energy will increase.

Also, the European Union can go to increase the share, for example, coal, smooth the mine either can increase the share of atomic energy.

Thus, they put their strategy to care from fossil fuels. And with all these costs, the European Union economy will be less competitive.

Will be able to replace?

If the Europeans make the rejection of Russian natural resources the main goal in their lives, then of course they will succeed with time (but not earlier than 2025-2030).

By and large, the case is not in Russia and not in the last events. Since, if we look at the generation of oil, gas and coal in the structure of electricity production in Europe, it was 57% in 1985, and in 2020 - 38%.

That is, it obviously has a tendency to reduce oil, gas and coal in the structure of electricity production. Especially very quickly all this went from 2007.

And the proportion of renewable sources in the structure of electricity production in Europe in 1985 is about 0%, and in 2020 - 23%. This share is growing according to the exponential.

But it is necessary to understand that each country is unique in its climatic and other features. Therefore, it is not possible everywhere, for example, to put windmills and use solar energy.

Also, it is necessary to understand that these windmills and solar panels cost money, and this is a big investment. And in many ways now these investments are subsidized by the government.

That is, the business itself, if he had not supported the state, may not invest there.

You understand yourself, lay an inexpensive pipe from Russia to Europe much cheaper than to build all these windmills and solar panels. At the same time, Russia has the largest natural gas reserves in the world.

Why can the ruble be seriously strengthened?

Translation of gas calculations in rubles for new contracts with unfriendly countries is an epochal event that the current paradigm will turn over the current paradigm.

This means that Europe will have to be funded with the Russian financial infrastructure in rubles, increasing the demand for the national currency. Our banks will lend European banks in rubles.

The demand for rubles and without gas calculations will be monstrous due to the currency surplus on the account of current operations and due to restrictions on the movement of capital. In such a situation, the ruble can only be strengthened.

The transfer of gas calculations in the near future can translate calculations for oil, metals, grain, etc. Exports from Russia.

At the moment, about 80% of oil sales in the world are nominated in dollars. Over 72% of the gas turnover in dollars. And on the dollar + euro accounts for about 92% of all calculations. And this design begins to gradually deform.

Saudi Arabia intends to translate part of the calculations to Yuan. Now China is the largest trading partner of Saudi Arabia, absorbing about 1/4 of all exports.

If you look wider, global trading with raw materials for dollars in the world is raised under the big question. The West has become toxic in the context of protection and guarantees of savings, savings. But the calculations to produce with them became dangerous.

Can the dollar cost 30 rubles?

The index of Big Macs (through it the course of the national currency to the dollar) in relation to the ruble in 2021 was the most undervalued - by 69%.

And judging by the Big Mac index, $ 1 should cost 23 rubles. Of course, the index Big Poppy is very controversial, here I agree with you :))

Why is the ruble lately really strongly strengthened?

All because of the budget rule. At a certain price for oil, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation bought a currency and sold rubles, thereby descended the ruble exchange rate (and vice versa).

Accordingly, now this currency turned out to be frozen, and it is clear that there will be no fiscal rule to work more.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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