Hello, friends! It is clear that now it is extremely difficult to make forecasts. Nevertheless, I will try to give some logical guidelines.

I am confident that you wonder what you need to pay attention to evaluate the prospects for the dollar's course in the current drags.

The current situation is distinguished by extreme uncertainty and rapidly changing conditions. For example, a new order appeared on turning out cash currency in Russia (you can take from the bank not more than $ 10,000).

Also, the following limitation was introduced: businesses leading foreign economic activity were forced to sell 80% of foreign exchange earnings.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to keep dollars and euros on a more or less adequate level, that is, keeps them in the economy and, as it were, forbids them to fold them now under the mattress.

If you remember that the commission of 12% appeared when buying a currency on the stock exchange, then it turns out that it has already been done very much so that the population does not buy a currency at all. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to stabilize the situation

There is no adequate fundamental corridor at the dollar. Volatility is very large, and the variation in the fundamental corridor may increase.

It is no secret that oil is very important when evaluating the dollar's course, but there is a big but. Now the price of oil (even the Russian brand) does not determine the value of the fundamental corridor of the dollar. And not only, because oil prices strongly jump, but also, because, the future sales of our oil are incomprehensible.

Russian oil is actively refused. And at the restructuring of commercial oil traffic will take quite a lot of time. In the future, when oilflows are stabilized (and not only they), in the new reality it will be possible to return to a less understandable fundamental corridor of course values.

Now the dollar exchange rate is mainly determined by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (the limitations and actions of the Central Bank). It makes no sense to watch the dollar index, the JPY index, etc. - is all not working now and does not affect the dollar rate.

Obviously, historical events on the geopolitical arena occurred, as a result of which the fate of the ruble is able to change, both in the short-term and long-term period of time.

Key in the definition of the future dollar rate should be considered the opportunity to sell Russian energy. Of course, the volumes of such future deliveries will be important.

For building and rebuilding commercial relations on this issue will take months. And much will continue to depend on geopolitics, I think it is obvious.

Many experts note that the Central Bank in the last trade currency sessions is trying to keep the dollar to 120 rubles. Most likely, the target value at the rate on the nearest period (including April) is somewhere in the corridor of 100-120 rubles per dollar.

I do not know whether it will be possible to keep this corridor, but I understand well that volatility will definitely try to reduce (it is important for business). If necessary, raise a key rate, although the possibilities of the Central Bank for regulating the course remains less and less.

Let's hope that there is a period of relative stabilization ahead of us. Well, today everything, thanks for your attention!

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