The ruble continues to strengthen no matter what. How long will the current growth of the ruble last, with which it is connected and, what is it generally now?

The ruble is strengthened against the background of relatively successful negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. According to the Russian side, the negotiations were held constructively. Russia even makes 2 steps to deoxize the conflict.

1 step is a cardinal reduction of military activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions;

Step 2 is the possibility of meeting Putin and Zelensky simultaneously with the paraffination of a peaceful contract by the head of the Foreign Ministry. In addition, Russia refused to denations and demilitarization requirements.

Once Russia went on such concessions (especially to reduce military activity), then she herself wants to sign a contract as soon as possible.

But on the other hand, it may be a tactical pause for regrouping. It all depends on Putin, let's see which suggestions it will take.

Offers of Ukraine:

Quite adequate offers, there are chances that Russia will accept them. But even if some peace agreement is signed, this does not mean that all sanctions will remove from Russia, and the ruble will return to 60-70 rubles (or at all for 30 rubles).

As Johnson said: "Agreements between Russia and Ukraine will not be enough to withdraw sanctions." And even on the contrary, he believes that Putin's pressure must be strengthened.

And the British Foreign Ministry says that to relieve sanctions, Moscow must prove committed to the abdes of aggression in the future.

In any case, if they are removing sanctions, only those that have been introduced after February 23. Also, most likely, Russia will no longer see its frozen gold and foreign exchange reserves, as they will be spent on the restoration of Ukraine.

Another positive event - the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation successfully paid coupon on Eurobonds by $ 102 million. The following payment on sovereign debt will be March 31. And it is necessary to pay in dollars, the payment amount will be $ 88 million.

But there is a negative moment for the ruble - this is the refusal of the EU countries and the countries of a large seven to pay gas ruble. They had only 1 day before the gas is turned off, as Putin instructed to transfer payments for gas to rubles until March 31.

At the moment of the repository in the EU countries are filled with gas by 26% - 27 billion cubic meters. At the same time, for the 2nd quarter of 2021, they spent 85 billion cubic meters.

Given that Russian gas takes about 40% of the total gas exports to the EU, it can be concluded that the European Union will be able to stretch without Russian gas.

And how much will Russia be able to live without currency receipt?

The export of oil from Russia fell significantly in March, and even record deliveries to India do not save the overall situation. And now Russia risks remain and without income from gas exports.

But it is precisely from the sale of 80% of the currency revenue, the ruble and keeps and even grows. If he decesses this support, he just goes to a free fall.

The stock exchange rate is currently little. The only thing he says that you can buy electronic dollars at a rate of 12% more exchange. Paper dollars for this exchange rate not to buy, none of the goods in this course also do not buy.

For example, Aliexpress has a product that costs $ 100. If we switch to rubles, we will see that in rubles it costs 11,000 rubles. So on Aliexpress for $ 1, 110 rubles are asked (30% more of the exchange rate).

It is difficult to understand what course is real. And with a high probability, the ruble will soon roll apart. In the future, several months, the dollar will cost above 100 rubles, since it is very unlikely that the sanctions will be removed, and they carry long-term consequences for the economy.

However, in the short term, it is not eliminated by the possibility of even a small strengthening of the ruble to 80-81 rubles per dollar, since, there is an unlocked GEP.

For example, when the ruble collapsed from 30 to 70 rubles, he was also formed by the GEP for 50 rubles, but then the price returned to the closure of the GPE.

It is likely that there will be something similar and this time. In general, of course, the current prices are quite good to buy currency.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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