How did the sanctions against Iran affect their stock exchange? I want to run forward and say that the exchange turned out to be an excellent refuge for capital.

In 2006, international sanctions were introduced, which lasted until 2015. During this time, GDP stably grew up to 2012, after already decreased. In 2016 -2017 GDP grew, because a nuclear transaction was concluded.

But in 2018, the United States (during Trump) came out of this transaction and introduced much serious restrictions, ban on:

As a result, a very serious fall of GDP has occurred from 5.5 (2017) to 2.4 (2020). Also, foreign direct investment decreased.

As a result, in 2020, Iran's GDP decreased by 74%, compared with 2010 the influx of foreign investment practically dried.

And after the introduction of all these one-sided restrictions, inflation became the most important issue of Iran. Only official inflation in 2006-2008. It was 15-23%, in 2009-2012. - 5-24%, in 2013 - 36%, in 2014-2017. - 10-12%, in 2018-2020. - 33-39%.

The key rate of the Central Bank of the last 5 years is 18%. At the same time, the official course of Iranian rial all this time was depreciated.

Of course, in Iran, the currency deficit, nevertheless, the dollar and the euro can be bought in banks and exchangers to one of the courses (3 official and 1 gray).

Exporters are required to sell currency revenue inside Iran on the 3rd rate (NIMA), but below Open Market Rate (closest to just).

Exports of Iranian oil decreased 4 times after the nuclear transaction breaking from the United States. After that, Iran has established exports to Asian countries (mainly in China). Exports to China amounted to 25%, imports - 10%.

Access to Western technologies was closed, and the main supplier of technologies became, of course, China.

After analyzing all of the foregoing, you can already hold parallels with Russia. Inflation we only have to grow, we have a key rate now 20% (in Iran, it is 18% already as 5 years old). We, too, are trying to reorient our exports to China, and we also limited access to Western technologies.

How did Iran's stock market showed?

The Iranian stock market turned out to be a great way to protect against hyperinflation.

Over the past 4 years, the capitalization of the stock market in the local currency increased 15 times, on a lot of ahead of inflation.

And, by the way, the largest growth in capitalization of the stock market was at the time of the most stringent sanctions of the United States.

For 10 years (until July 2021), the average annual yield of the TEDPIX exchange index in dollars amounted to 13.8%. For comparison, the annual yield of the developing market index was 4.7%, and our RTS index brought an average annual loss of 1.6%.

The stock market in Iran is popular among citizens. According to the data for 2020, 12 million Iranians traded on the stock exchange - this is 1/7 inhabitants of the country.

When inflation in the area of ​​40%, investments in bank deposits do not save savings from the depreciation (after all, the key rate in Iran is 18%). That is why people invest in the stock exchange.

So, in Iran on average for 10 years:

The Iranian stock market for this period can be said that only grew, because there were no foreign investors in it.

The best growth dynamics was observed in 0.5-1 years after the imposition of sanctions. The duration of a bovine trend ranged from 1.5 to 2 years.

Conclusions for Iranian experience

Shares are excellent protection and inflation and devaluation. When investing for a long time (from 3-5 years), the shares bring on a lot of greater growth than the currency.

That is, in Iran, this situation turned out that the stock market became the only way to save funds (and even to increase). All because the stock market could provide the yield that was higher than inflation.

Interesting Facts

Sanctions that are superimposed against Russia and under which Iran has long been located, very similar. And we will encounter the same problems with which Iran faced.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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