Hello, friends! This time the country's GDP will fall stronger than in 1998, 2008, 2014 and 2020.

The problem is that Russian commodities will continue to idle, from which problems will only grow.

Now the goods do not reach Western countries (not due to the embargo). Many republics do not give Russian goods to unload.

Many exporters this year will receive a significant decline in profits. And already on this factor, Russia's GDP will collapse.

According to personal estimates, GDP will fall at about 15-20%. As it was 30 years ago, when the Russian economy was rebuilt from the planned economy to market rails.

Now the time of the structural reform of the Russian economy is coming, and privatization is inevitable.

The most likelihood that some proportion of state participation in the current state-owned companies will remain. Now about 50% of state-owned stakes lies on the balance sheet of the state (for example, Gazprom, Rosneft).

And the share of state participation in these companies will continue in the future, but its share will be rapidly decreased (perhaps will retain 20-30%).

Because, now you need to look at the experience of the United States and Europe of 100 years ago and go according to their historical development path.

Since, at that time, there were also privatization, and the economies of states that were going on the same path developed for the past century at the expense of private business. That is, business was given to develop.

If Russia wants to go to the market on all market stations and not to take all those foundations of the Soviet era, it is necessary to spend privatization (give business to breathe).

Now, most likely, a new economic policy will begin (NEP). That is, there will be certain tax reliefs to the business and various kinds of relaxation in all sectors of the economy. As part of the crisis, it is inevitable.

If you raise the country with the established state-capitalism and give the country a wider development in terms of the commercial sector, then for the future 20-30 years it is not bad to raise Siberia and the Far East (in collaboration with China, otherwise).

Today, thanks for your attention!

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