Hello, friends! It is forced to state that the risks of the onset of default in the country are steadily grow up.

Defalt is an inability (in rare cases, reluctance) to pay for their debt obligations.

We can talk about a default in the country (such was already Russia), and about the default of some business, if he failed to give debts on time (for example, to pay off the bonds).

We are afraid of default in the country first of all, because, the heavy 90s are associated with the declaration of default. Although in the plight of the country in those difficult times, not only default is to blame.

In the past articles, I said that the default does not threaten Russia due to the fact that the country debts are small, and the gold and foreign exchange reserves are huge.

But from the end of February, the situation has changed very much: the gold and foreign exchange reserves are partially blocked. In addition, the situation can turn around in such a way that Russia will go to default consciously in response to sanctions and limitations of a number of countries.

More recently, Morgan Stanley experts made a statement that they expect default in Russia in mid-April. This is due to current general sanctions, restrictions, and, specifically, with payments on dollar bonds.

So, now default is no longer an empty horror car, but a completely real future (under certain conditions). Probably even should not say that our financial authorities will try to avoid default, but this may be a forced measure.

Defalt is bad on all sides to the image of the country on the world arena, but there may be a few advantages for geopolitics (even for the economy).

Is it worth a default right now, and is it inevitable?

I think that you should not be afraid, since there have already been numerous sanction events and restrictions that, by their strength and long-term influence on the country's economy, will surround default and a number of other negative possible events.

However, the offensive of a default on country debts is of course able to exacerbate the general weak financial and economic situation of the country in current adverse economic conditions.

At the same time, we can avoid default. Since, on the eve of the German Chancellor and the Prime Minister of Britain stated that they would not limit the sale of oil and gas from Russia.

Chancellor of Germany Scholz stated that energy supplies from Russia were derived from under sanctions, since now there are no other ways to provide energy security in Europe.

Does this currency liquidity be enough to repay our country debt obligations? Time will show. Nevertheless, what is happening now will lead to a drop in economic growth in Russia.

Definitely we will face technological and other numerous difficulties (even medical), and we will depend on us as we will overcome them.

Of course, it will be difficult and will have to tighten the belt. However, pleases that there is no longer amendment to support small businesses.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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