What will happen after the opening of the Moscow Exchange, will we see an increase or on the contrary fall? What are the prospects for the market, if the sanctions do not take off?

From March 21, an OFZ bidding on the mosserier opens. The Central Bank will buy them to stabilize the market. This is something like QE - what the American Fed holds.

However, it is too early to talk about the auction of shares, no information on this score. Most likely, trading with shares will be launched after the end of the conflict. But in any case, someday the auction will be launched.

What traffic will show the Russian market?

To do this, let's see at similar situations in other countries when they have closed the exchange for a long time.

The Greek Exchange was closed for 37 days in 2015 due to the default on the public debt. At the time of opening the exchange occurred by 16%. But the market did not stop at this, and he fell for another 200 days. The fall was 55% of the closure of the Exchange.

Egypt is closed for 55 days in 2011 due to the revolution. There were 2 unsuccessful attempts to resume bidding, and when the stock exchange was fully opened, the fall was 30%. After opening, the market continued to fall (about 300 days), the fall was another 30%.

👉 Kierja in Pakistan closed against the background of the general collapse of all markets in 2008 and due to the exception of Pakistani shares from the index of developing countries. The exchange did not work 107 days, and after the launch was a rather strong collapse by 50%.

Here is such disappointing statistics. Most of the current situation in Russia similar to the situation in Greece. There, the stock exchange was closed against the background of default, and in Russia at the moment there is also a probability of default.

By the way, the Ministry of Finance fulfilled obligations to pay coupon on Eurobondam. But it is too early to relax, another 5 payments.

On the other hand, the market may not fall or at least so much. This may contribute to the influence of money in shares from the National Welfare Fund (FNB), as well as the simplified procedure of Baybekov.

And even more so now negotiations are actively going between Russia and Ukraine. Perhaps the world will soon be concluded that, of course, it would be a very positive factor for the market.

The United States even says that they will remove sanctions in the event of the termination of Russian special operation in Ukraine, as well as, when restoring the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of the republic - if this happens, the market may even discover.

And foreign investors who are now forbidden to sell Russian securities can contribute to falling the market.

The proportion of non-residents in the general turnover of trading with shares and bonds is 48% - very much. And if at the moment there were auction and one could sell, then foreigners would have taxed the market. Of course, not as much as they did with the depositary receipts on the London Stock Exchange, but at times.

And, most likely, when trading in shares on the mosbery will be launched, they will not be allowed to sell immediately, but only a while so as not to cause the collapse. And there, perhaps, foreign investors will change their opinion and wake up to sell Russian stocks (especially if sanctions will remove from Russia).

Thus, buying shares immediately after opening the exchange is not the best idea. In this case, statistics are not on your side. And it is better to wait for the moment when they are allowed to sell foreign investors.

In any case, even if this moment is removing sanctions, some investors will still come out, which will cause a decrease in quotations.

What are the prospects for the market, if the sanctions do not take off?

In fact, the prospects are rather vague. Analysts believe that in 2022, Russia will lose 15% of GDP - it is a lot, 3 times more than we lost during the crisis of 1998 and more 2 times in 2008.

In addition, if we look at the GDP in dollars over the past year, it does not grow particularly since 2008. And now also will decline.

Can Russia adapt to the sanctions in the short-term? It is unlikely, of course, there is China and other countries that are ready to trade with Russia, but this is a small part of world GDP.

GDP of Russia, China and some other other "not very free countries" is in the amount of $ 20 trillion, while the GDP of the Western countries is $ 50 trillion. Under the countries of the West, it also meant in view of Japan, Australia and other democratic countries.

And, of course, talk about development, when the country is excluded from most of the world economy, it is very difficult. Of course, Europe will still buy Russian energy carriers for some time, but she is going to slowly reduce its dependence on Russia.

In general, buying Russian stocks immediately after the opening of the exchange is very dangerous. And, of course, it all depends on when the market opens, on what marks, and at that time there will be a geopolitical situation.

So, we can only wait and follow the further development of events.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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