Analysts an independent investment group "Aton" rated the reorientation of the export of Russian raw materials from Europe to China. Their conclusions cannot be called unambiguous, but they also do not belong to the discharge. We invite you to familiarize yourself with the main provisions of the report.

Deliveries of raw materials in the EU were threatened due to sanctions against Russia and response. Against this background, the search for new buyers on the released volumes of products began. China can become China.

GDP Middle Kingdom for 2021 amounted to $ 17.7 trillion. Half of the global consumption of metals and fossil resources falls on the PRC. And this is despite the fact that in China a high level of its own extraction and even imports. In addition, the country joined the decarbonization program and began to reduce the "dirty" production. So, the flow of import will grow.

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The percentage of exports of the most popular goods in the EU takes only a small part in the total volume of Chinese imports: iron ore - 1%, copper - 7%, oil - 20%. Therefore, the imported capacity of Asian industries will easily absorb the goods remaining overlooking. True, there are problem positions. For example, for coal, the specified ratio is 40%, and for steel - 70%. However, Aton analysts suggest that this goods will be allowed to enter the market, but with the condition of sale at a price below the market (with a discount from the manufacturer).

Another promising direction is Nickel. Today, according to Athon, the liberated amount of Russian raw materials is 30% of China's total imports, which is quite a lot. However, recently this metal is at the peak of popularity. Prices for it reached a maximum for 10 years.

This is due to the high need for nickel at the manufacturers of batteries for electric vehicles. Another reason for the increase in prices was the plan of Indonesia, the largest nickel supplier in the world, significantly reduce delivery. The country is going to actively develop its own electrocarbon production.

All this is added to the exhaustion of metal reserves in Chinese warehouses. At the beginning of the year, they accounted for 5 thousand tons. This is only 2% of the national annual number of nickel imported into the PRC.

If you look at the market as a whole, prices for non-ferrous metals in China are higher than European. The exception is the relatively cheap iron.

Finding out what you need to drive to the east, you need to understand how to do it. The cost of cargo transportation has grown noticeably in recent weeks. The ruble rate fell, in the market the shortage of transport and containers. In addition, the shoulder of delivery to China is several times more than in the EU.

Sea path through the Suez Canal Log - 23 thousand km. And the alternative is the northern seaway a length of 14 thousand km - it is difficult to pass and does not have sufficient infrastructure and icebreaking fleet.

Another shipping method is the railway. However, the eastern direction is already overloaded. In March, the number of transportation on the Bam and the Trans-Siberian highway increased by 24%.

Now the project expansion is especially relevant. Previously, three options of the III stage of the program, the most ambitious of which is designed for cargo traffic in the amount of 240 million tons. Soon we will find out whether the project will become more larger in connection with the new plans for the conquest of the Asian commodity market.

Whatever way to choose manufacturers - by the sea or land - most of the funds spent will remain in the country. The state will not lose capital, but will be able to develop its own transport infrastructure.

According to the results of the consideration of the report "Aton" it is clear that Russian suppliers have good opportunities in China. However, the report did not affect other Asian countries: India, Pakistan, Vietnam, etc.

So the field of activity is undoubtedly even more. What do you think, will the state direct all possible resources on the development of the Eastern direction? Or is there another way for Russian industrialists?

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