Hello, friends! Today we will reflect what will be the ruble rate to the dollar in the near future.
Sensitivity threshold
On Friday, April 8, the dollar reached 71.6 rubles during the day, but in the evening to close the market, we saw the strongest movement up to 75 rubles (and after trading we still received the abolition of a 12%commission for the purchase of currency on the exchange).
And on Friday April 22, the same thing happened. We left below 73 rubles and then again saw a strong movement to close the market again to 75 rubles.
With a high probability it was the actions of the regulator who were not allowed to close the week below 75 rubles. These sharp jumps mean large volumes of currency purchases. And it was done by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation through controlled banks.
Based on the fact that Russia's budget for 2022, 172.1 rubles' budget from the average exchange rate to the dollar 72.1 rubles, it can be concluded that below 72 rubles for $ 1 CB will not strengthen the ruble.
Starting from April 25, perhaps we will see the course and below 72 rubles at the moment. Because exporters will actively sell currency to pay taxes.
Let's look a little wider at the situation
There was a huge number of sanctions on Russia, now it is on this indicator on 1 place in the world (ahead of Iran, Syria, North Korea and Cuba).
Remember the monstrous weakening of the ruble on Forex to 140, it happened not just like that - Russia conducts a special military operation. And the course is now equal to 75.4 rubles (such a course was over 2020-2021).
So it turns out, because we have a currency control rule. Our market can be said, isolated from the global system.
And our exporters are required to sell 80% of currency revenue - it significantly affects the strengthening of the ruble. Also, we have a ban on the sale of assets with non-residents, and they cannot receive dividends.
So would they have long sold all Russian stocks and bonds, and they would have bought a currency for this money and would have wrapped the ruble.
In addition, and we are limited to the export of currency from the country.
Nearest events that may affect the ruble exchange rate
Reduced key rates. Now she is 17%, but on April 28 a meeting will be held, and according to forecasts the rate will be in the area of 15%. Despite the fact that by July-September, the rate may fall to 10%. Lowering the key rate can weaken a little rub within one 1 rub from the start of the trading.
The meeting of the Fed will be in early May. And this event will have a serious impact on the dollar and the American stock market.
If Russia announces, which reached its goals in Ukraine, the ruble can seriously strengthen. And, if we talk about sanction pressure, it is almost not reflected on the ruble.
References for exporters and customers of currency within the country can weaken a little ruble.
At the current price, the dollar can be carefully purchased, but you need to understand: so far, at best, it will simply lie in a currency account in a bank - to cash out dollars purchased on the stock exchange yet.
Exchanges can be applied if the sales course will be less than 80 rubles for $ 1.
Macroeconomic survey of the Bank of Russia (dated April 2022)
The ruble exchange rate to the dollar is average for the year:
That is, the dollar that we have now, we will not see in the next 3 years.
Today, thanks for your attention!
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