Today you will learn why the ruble continues to strengthen, despite the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Conditions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Over the past days, the ruble has played not only all its losses associated with the special operation of Russia, but also came to its usual values ​​in recent years (70-76 rubles).

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation is trying to avoid reinforcement of the ruble and introduces currency posses: a 12% commission is canceled when buying currency on the stock exchange, and also, the Central Bank allowed non-sireless companies to implement the currency revenue for 60 days, and not for 3.

In practice, it will slightly weaken the pressure on the dollar and the euro, since, non-sin and non-energy exports takes no more than 12% in the export structure of goods (even less).

Also, it does not remove obligations to sell the currency revenue, but only spreads the implementation time. Therefore, the effect on the currency market will not be.

By the end of April, the dollar rate can drop to 75 rubles, since oil and gas exporters will actively sell currency for taxes:

And exporters of non-sly and non-energy sectors will sell currency to pay for income tax (0.1 trillion rubles).

Suppose that 30% of the currency is needed for paying taxes, then we get the sale of currency in the amount of 700 billion rubles (daytime turnover on the stock exchange - 160 billion rubles).

Such a volume of simultaneous currency sales may result in the fact that we will see the course of 70 rubles for $ 1.

Thin currency market

On April 20, several large sales took place on the Mosbirzhi at the rate of 71.88 rubles for $ 1 (6 rubles lower than April 19). The volume of transactions amounted to 20 billion rubles (1/4 from daytime turnover). The same thing happened with the euro.

Based on trading volumes, it can be concluded that sales were carried out in the interests of exporters (albeit too obviously).

All this suggests that on the thin market in the moment with large volumes you can see the course 70-60 rubles for $ 1. But most likely it will rebound back.

Basic conditions for strengthening the ruble

The record surplus on the account of current operations, serious restrictions on the movement of capital on the financial state and the refusal to accumulate gold reserves suggest that the dollar has no bottom in the current configuration.

And no matter how the events would not unfold, the account of current operations in Russia will be highly surprised by exporting goods, since, other categories of the balance of payments will fall out more and faster than exports.

The ruble may fall only in the hyperinflation scenario. If there is a state budget deficit and current account deficit, as well as if excess free liquidity canopy under the critical shortage of goods and launched degradation in the economy. While we are very far from this scenario.

Also, the weakening of the ruble may occur:

The abolition of currency control

While there is such a picture: we have a tax period ahead, so we can see the strengthening of the ruble. Of course, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will take measures so that this reinforcement does not happen.

And he will do it with help:

That's all, thanks for your attention!

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