Now the dollar is artificial, because there are practically no currency buyers on the market, since various capital control methods are used (for example, individuals when buying a dollar must pay a 12% commission).

The Bank of Russia from March 28 will buy gold from banks at a fixed price - 5,000 rubles for 1 gr. The established secular price of 17% is lower than the accounting value of affiliate gold (on March 26 it is 6,000 rubles for 1 g).

The current value of gold in the international market - $ 1958 for the Troyan ounce (a little more than 6,000 rubles for 1 gr.). The established CB value corresponds to the course of about 80 rubles for $ 1.

That is, the Central Bank tied the cost of the ruble to gold. And if, for example, the course will go below 75 rubles, it will be more profitable in foreign markets to buy gold and sell its Central Bank.

Such a mechanism will stabilize the ruble exchange rate around 80 rubles for $ 1. In this hypothesis, if gold starts to rise (for example, Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices in $ 2500 after 2022), then the ruble rate will decrease.

Now it is tied to the current cost - approximately $ 1950 per troy ounce.

Does Russia need a strong ruble?

Russia has an export-oriented economy. And companies that are engaged in exports, a weak ruble is beneficial.

The share of oil and gas in Russia's exports for 2021 amounted to 50%, that is, 1/2 of all revenues provide oil and gas companies.

What, do not forget about Norilsk, Acron, Rusal, Polyus Gold, Polymetal, Phosagro, Rusagro, Alrosa, etc.

In fact, the Russian economy is much more dependent on companies that are beneficial to a weak ruble.

Although on the other hand, since the budget rule does not work anymore, we can return to the past when the dollar rate to the ruble correlated with the Brent oil.

In 2015, oil cost in the area of ​​$ 75, and the dollar is about 50 rubles. By 2016, oil descends from $ 75 to $ 35, and the ruble weakens to the dollar to 70 rubles. Then the correlation is also constantly preserved.

In this case, at such a high price for the brent oil ($ 106), the ruble would be traded in the area of ​​40 rubles for $ 1.

What exchange rate is laid in the budget of the Russian Federation for 2022?

The budget is formed on the basis of the Urals oil price for $ 44 and the average ruble - 72.1 rubles for $ 1, which corresponds to the average cost of the oil barrel - 3,180 rubles.

And in 2022, the average price of oil of the URALS brand was $ 88.95 compared to C $ 60 for the same period. That is, the barrel of oil in rubles today costs 7 405 rubles during the course of 83 rubles.

Therefore, we can pure hypothetically assume that the decline even to 40 rubles for $ 1, will reduce the cost of the oil barrel to about 3,700 rubles. That is, even with such a course, the budget does not suffer.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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