Whatever the developers and paid analysts would say, but the demand for housing is still reduced (10-17%).

There are several reasons: the continued reduction of the actual disposable incomes of the population and the sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

And it is not necessary to forget that over the past years, the residential real estate market has grown very much on a positive mortgage and in the hype of inflated media.

It is no secret that the main engine increases for square meters is the adequacy of interest rates on mortgage loans.

But, and at the key rate, 20% is difficult to see a normal mortgage rate. The preferential mortgage on new buildings is 12% (increased from 7% to 12%).

It is impossible to say that it is a straight excellent rate, but in comparison with the standard mortgage interest rate close to 20%, it is really not bad.

However, if you count the annual overpayment, then nothing good will work, especially in comparison with the previous interest rates.

And with inflation, there is a lot of incomprehensible, today it raises, and what will happen in a few years? Dont clear. And it is not clear what will be with employment. Many have now increased the risk of loss of basic income.

In addition, even an approved mortgage on old pleasant interest rates, banks annul. Therefore, real estate will be bought mainly on your own funds, and not on credit - it immediately narrows the circle of potential buyers.

Discounts on the secondary have already begun to appear, but they still appear only in the bargaining process. In the new buildings segment, there are also hidden discounts - partial subsidies of the mortgage (that is, part of mortgage payments takes on the seller of new buildings).

It really works, as, in practice, reduce mortgage time for the buyer. But it is necessary to understand that all this is no accident (everything is initially laid in the price).

It is not surprising that again tried to stimulate the demand for housing through a preferential mortgage. People have very little money, because they have already given them in a daedemamic period to the previous preferential (and not only preferential) mortgage.

At the same time, the current acceleration of inflation continues to reduce the income of Russians. And now wishing to take a cost-effective preferential mortgage can be less, and some simply will not want to take it, because they know how to count (or due to a decrease in confidence in their income on the long-term period of time).

Based on all the above arguments, the real estate market is likely to decline. Apartments must be cheaper with a decrease in solvent demand.

Little (unshakable) experts call a different percentage of decline - from 10% to 35%.

But there are arguments and for growth. First of all, during periods of essential cataclysms, the people are inclined to leave in real estate.

From the beginning of the February events, people ran into dollars, but with the strengthening of the ruble, there was already an opposite movement from the ruble dollars.

In addition, there are capital capital and from the stock market after his collapse, and they are looking for where to leave. Low probably, some will fall in real estate. Also, after some time, deposit deposits under high interest rates will begin.

And the question will arise where to give this money? These processes are fully capable of maintaining a declining price of squares.

In addition, an increase in the number of rubles in the financial system is naturally able to strengthen the demand for real estate. Maybe slightly reanimate investment demand for apartments.

But to invest only in real estate (especially in Russia) is a strange decision that is associated with great risks.

In general, not so simple. But still, I am prone to lower apartment prices, but is not yet ready to confidently declare that it will be strong (I think it will decrease by about 15% in summer).

Today, thanks for your attention!

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