Hello, friends! Today you will learn whether there will be more serious sanctions against Russia.

The West has exhausted the possibilities of new sanctions against Russia. Since their further tightening would mean an attempt to complete Russia's insulation from the global economy and stopping with it any contacts.

And, most likely, this will not happen, because the contacts are needed at least in order to continue the search for possible compromises.

Of course, symbolic sanctions will continue with respect to individuals, officials and politicians. Moreover, the West can no longer respond to high-quality expansion of sanctions without counter damage to itself.

Export - our all

The most dangerous for Russia is a ban of exports of oil and gas. In 2021, the proportion of oil and gas exports was 50%, and there were years when it was even more than 65%.

In 2021, oil exports brought Russia $ 111 billion, petroleum products - $ 70 billion, gas - $ 55.5, liquefied natural gas - $ 7.3 billion.

What is the proportion of unfriendly countries in the supply of key raw materials?

The dependence on unfriendly countries in the supply is very high, but it is necessary to understand that they are very dependent on us.

The main importer of Russian raw materials is of course Europe. And let's analyze its energy problems.

Recently, the energy burden in the share of Europe's GDP has increased very much (almost up to 10%). That is, Europe spends 1/10 of its energy GDP - this is the maximum since 1981. Such an energetic shock may well lead to stagnation in Europe.

In 2022, the costs of pure imports of oil, gas and coal in Europe may exceed $ 900 billion per year, compared with $ 500 billion in 2021 (2020 was $ 200 billion).

The actions of European politicians contradict common sense, they just shoot themselves no longer in foot, but in the stomach. And they still manage to raise a question about oil and gas embargo, what are they guided? If you have an answer, be sure to know about it in the comments.

Coal

In the 5th European sanction package against Russia there was a ban on the supply of coal from Russia. Importing coal to Europe decreased until 2020, but then began to grow.

The deceing in Europe ceased in the summer of 2020. After that, the EU began to increase the import of coal. It is not enough that this process took place before the special operation in Ukraine, the imports expanded and against the background of tightening the rhetoric of local politicians on climate change and the refusal primarily just from coal.

But at the same time, the export of coal from Russia in an unfriendly country was constantly reduced: in 2018 - 66%, in 2019 - 60%, at 2020 - 50%.

And, what is the result? Coal futures in Europe increased to the highest level, since restrictions on imports from Russia tighten the market.

Now Europe will buy expensive coal from distant countries (for example, Australia, Indonesia). Of course, this coal will be much more expensive than Russian.

Positive is only that the ban on the supply of coal from Russia will not hit the Russian economy, in contrast to the possible ban on natural gas.

Gas

Is it possible to ban on gas?

In 2021, the share of deliveries from Russia accounted for 40% of the total consumption of natural gas in the EU. That is, in fact, Russia provides almost 1/2 import of natural gas to Europe.

Let's analyze gas reserves in European warehouses: Germany -26%, Italy - 30%, Netherlands - 19%, France - 22%, Austria - 13%, Hungary - 19%, Czech Republic - 28%, Slovakia - 19%.

Of course, Europe is developing plans to reduce its dependence on the natural gas of Russia.

One of the most likely options for reducing natural gas consumption in Europe in the short term will be an increase in coal-based electricity production.

Given the current level of capacity utilization, there are still opportunities to increase the production of electricity on an angle by about 11%, compared with 2021. And coal, of course, they will buy significantly more expensive than Russian, as already mentioned.

In the meantime, natural gas reserves decrease in storage facilities. The largest gas storage of Gazprom Germania now has a storage level of less than 1%, which will need to increase significantly by November.

The necessary legal instruments to correct the situation gives the prepared law of Germany, which prescribes gas warehouse operators by the end of 2022 to provide a certain level of completion - an average of 80%.

This storage has a capacity of 4.2 billion cubic meters, and alternative sources from which it could be promptly filled, no.

And Germany receives about 50 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia per year - the largest volume among all EU countries. If Russia stops supplying now, then gas reserves in Germany will enforce the maximum until September 2022.

If a gas embargo gas will be introduced against Russia, it can destroy some European economies (including Germany).

Oil

The structure of oil and petroleum products in Europe:

The share is quite high, but oil is easier to deliver than natural gas. If Europe wants to strongly and sacrifice many, they can introduce an embargo on oil supplies from Russia.

And only on announcement of this news, oil can fly by $ 150-200 - it only aggravates the energy crisis in this region.

Banks

Now consider the financial system of Russia, it was her who wanted to destroy our Western rivals.

Initially, VTB, Promsvyazbank, Opening, Sovcombank and Novikombank, were initially in the American list of SDN. And recently, Sberbank and Alpha Bank joined this list.

From the top 10 largest banks of Russia, under the sanctions already 5 banks. Gazprombank added to them quite difficult, because ruble operations go through it when buying Russian gas.

By and large, nothing will change if they enclose sanctions against other banks. Plus, they have already frozen our gold reserves, and recently they have even banned from them to pay in Russian debts in order to declare a default.

Therefore, in this area there are few opportunities to strengthen sanitation pressure.

findings

A serious strengthening of sanctions is currently possible only on oil. The United States has already abandoned the supply of Russian oil, but there is no europe yet. But with a great desire, they can reduce deliveries from Russia.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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