Gazprom shares took off after the declaration of dividends. Is it worth holding the shares of Gazprom or is it worth getting rid of them.

The long -awaited event was accomplished: the Board of Directors Gazprom approved dividends in the amount of 52 rubles per share (dividend profitability amounted to 17% per annum).

Accordingly, those who bought Gazprom 200 rubles per 1 share received a yield of 25% per annum.

Many expected that Gazprom’s shares would fly up to 320-330 rubles. But there are a lot of insiders on the Russian market, and those events that will occur in many respects in price.

At the same time, the ruble rate fell by 9%, that is, Gazprom shares in dollars did not increase. Nevertheless, with a dollar exchange rate, 67 rubles, the shares of Gazprom are expensive (near their maximums).

Therefore, if Gazprom is bought to a large volume, it is better to get out of it now and transfer to the dollar.

In general, now it is better to fix such positions that have fired well on the Russian market and transfer to currency.

By the way, now a lot of interesting ideas have appeared on the US stock market. Most likely, the correction here ended and a new growth trend begins.

Prospects

There is still growth potential in Gazprom, but it is very limited, since the main growth driver (dividends) has already been implemented.

After the payment of dividends, Gazprom shares will fall by 52 rubles (by dividends). And there are great doubts that we will quickly close the dividend gap.

However, perhaps there will be some rebound by 10-15%, since investors are now convinced that Gazprom adheres to their dividend policy.

In 2023, Gazprom has definitely have growth prospects. He retained his face in front of investors. Confidence in future dividends will certainly grow. Accordingly, the shares have a chance to grow up to 500 rubles.

Naturally, a lot will depend on the dollar to the ruble and on other factors. But in general, if you believe in Gazprom, and you are not afraid of high volatility, then you can hold stocks for the long term.

Dividends in 2023

In 2023, Gazprom may pay dividends from 80 to 100 rubles per share.

The average price for gas according to the results of 2022 will be about $ 500, since a significant part of the gas is supplied under long -term contracts.

It turns out that with a market value of gas of $ 1000- $ 1200, the average cost for Gazprom will be in the region of $ 500.

The cost of gas is falling now (now gas costs $ 940 per cubic meter). Probably, it will continue to decline in price, as the risks of the gas embargo recede + summer season.

Gas consumption is falling because the production from alternative sources is growing, and the need for gas is slightly reduced.

How to be?

It is better now to fix most of the position on Gazprom. And cross the same money after a dividend cut off in order to catch some composure.

The risk of the embargo is now almost zero, Europe has already surrendered. This issue will be considered somewhere in 2023-2026. So far, no specific steps are taken in this direction.

Of course, there are risks of uninterrupted supplies through the GTS of Ukraine, however, the situation is more or less stable.

In the current exchange rate of the dollar 67 rubles, I see no reason to keep Gazprom's shares. Perhaps by the end of this year the dollar exchange rate will take off very much. It will be more profitable then to sell some part of the dollars and buy Gazprom shares.

It is possible that the shares will still fall and return to levels of 230-240 rubles. In this case, investments in Gazprom will already be much more interesting.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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