The Central Bank introduces more and more messages, but the ruble is in no hurry to fall. How will new concessions affect the ruble and what to expect from the ruble?

Relaxation of the Central Bank

💥 Exporters were allowed not to sell revenue for the amount of their import payments - this decision did not strongly affected the quotes of the ruble.

It is understandable, because if the exporter used to be a currency for his import payments, he simply did 2 operations: he first sold currencies for rubles to fulfill the requirements of the Central Bank, and then again bought the amount of currency for these rubles again.

Now companies do not need to do this, accordingly, they will lose less on the commissions and on the difference in the price of purchases/sales. But nothing has changed dramatically.

💥 The second relief is an increase in the transfer limit abroad from individuals from $ 10,000 to $ 50,000 per month - until the ruble has reacted to this news.

Most likely, this decision will slightly affect the ruble in the future. Because, if you used to have currency savings, and you have already spent a limit of $ 10,000 in a month, then in order to take them abroad, it was necessary to sell the currency for rubles, and then take the rubles in unlimited quantities. Then, in a foreign bank or broker, I would have to buy currency for rubles again.

It turns out that selling currency in Russia. You would have supported the ruble exchange rate. Now there will be fewer such operations, but I think that compared to how much exporters sell, these operations occupied a very small part.

💥 Also, the Central Bank also introduced additional currency relief for banks, which also insignificantly wore a ruble.

However, in total, all the mitigating measures introduced can indeed affect the ruble, but a small one-perhaps the ruble will weaken by 2-3%.

Reducing the percentage of sales of foreign exchange revenue

The main measure that can really deploy a ruble is a decrease in the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings. But the Central Bank is in no hurry to drive this measure.

If you look at the forecast of the dollar from Sberbank, we can assume that they expect an introduction of this measure by the end of May. Since they predict a collapse to 75 rubles per dollar by the end of May (-18%).

The messages that have already been introduced are not enough for such a fall.

While the forecast of the Sberbank comes true, they predicted the range of 63-64 rubles this week. From May 23 (according to their forecast), a strong collapse of the ruble will begin - most likely, it was then that the percentage of the sale of foreign exchange earnings will be reduced.

Default

On May 25, Russia ends a license to maintain public debt. Bloomberg says that the United States may not extend it, which means that Russia will again have problems with paying for its Eurobonds.

The next payment must be made on May 27 (2 payments at once). At the same time, one of the bonds provides for the possibility of payment in rubles.

Most likely, there will be no problems with her, and on another, you need to pay in currency (not necessarily in dollars, it is possible in euro, francs or in pounds). And it is not clear whether the US license is needed to pay in another currency.

Therefore, even if the United States does not extend the license, then Russia still has a little chance to pay. If Russia still cannot make a payment, then the default will occur on June 27.

Despite the fact that the refusal to renew the license is a rather negative event, I do not think that it will somehow affect the ruble course.

But globally, in the refusal to renew the license and in the onset of the default, there is little good. This is confirmed by the actions of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

If he, a few days before the potential date of default (May 4), made a payment in the currency from his remaining unlotted reserves, then it was meaning to avoid default (although before that they said that they would pay in rubles).

In general, while I adhere to this forecast. And the current trend in the introduction of more and more mitigating measures only increases the chances that this forecast will come true.

But the Central Bank may not reduce the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings in May, but do it later. In this case, you should not wait for a strong decrease in the ruble in May.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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