Today you will find out what the dollar exchange rate will be by the end of the year according to the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.

The dollar to the ruble updated the annual minimums. For $ 1 now they give less than 60 rubles. The last time the ruble was so strong at the end of 2019.

The global trend tells us that the ruble can go below 50 rubles for $ 1 (2015 level). Such a level (50 rubles) corresponds to the optimistic scenario of the CIB Sberbank in the 2nd square. 2022.

In the 3rd sq. 2022 they see 55 rubles, and in the 1st square. 2023 - 65 rubles according to an optimistic scenario. It turns out that we did not go according to a risky scenario.

And if you look at the base scenario, then the forecast for the 2nd square. 2022-60 rubles, in the 3rd square. - 67 rubles, and in 1 sq. 2023 - 75 rubles.

The strengthening of the ruble corresponds to a strong payment balance this year, the course is absolutely market, unlike last year, when it was artificial, said Maxim Oreshkin.

In his opinion, when the budget rule acted and the ruble was artificially weakened - it was a non -market situation, and now it is fully consistent with the payment balance. Therefore, the situation is absolutely market, and we have a market exchange rate of the ruble.

Of course, in fact, this is not completely true, because now there are currency restrictions (including the actions of non -residents).

With a high probability, the ruble will continue to strengthen, since, in the near future, money for Russian gas, an oil embargo on a pause, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will not decide to reduce the norms of sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters.

The first goal is the care below 60 rubles per dollar, the second is the care below 50 rubles per dollar.

Forecast from the Ministry of Economic Development

The ruble is expected to weaken the end of the year to 76 rubles per dollar. The peak of the currency strengthening will have to be on the 2nd quarter-just in this quarter we are now living. This means further, in their opinion, the ruble will only weaken.

Also, they predict the GDP recession in 2022 by about 8%, inflation - 17.5%, unemployment - 6.7% (versus 4.8% in 2021), the average oil price Urals is $ 80.1.

The forecast for the weakening of the ruble by the end of the year is due to risks of reducing exports against the background of import restoration and further measures of the Central Bank to soften foreign exchange regulation.

How will it be?

We have 2 forecasts for the ruble rate:

1) 50 rubles per dollar - we will see such a ruble, if the Central Bank does not weaken the rule of currency control (first of all, it is 80% of the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters);

2) 80 rubles per dollar - this forecast will become relevant if the Central Bank weakens the rule of currency control.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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