Recently, great changes have been taking place with the exchange rate. In late February - early March, there was a sharp increase in the dollar. Now, on the contrary, its decline occurs: the dollar costs less than 63 rubles. Recently, the Central Bank published a report that completely turned everything upside down: the changes that take place are contrary to expert forecasts.

When budgeted, analysts relied on the fact that in 2022 the dollar would cost about 72 rubles. When the dollar fell below 63 rubles, all forecasts were incorrect.

It is worth noting that the dollar is only strengthened in the world arena. Therefore, what is happening in Russia cannot go unnoticed. Valery Korneychuk, a teacher at the Higher School of Finance Management, even admitted that by the end of May the dollar may fall below 60 rubles.

Based on the dynamics of the course over the past 20 years, some brokers believe that the dollar to the ruble can fall below 50 rubles. In the period from 2001 to 2013, the dollar ranged between 29 and 31 rubles, and in 2014-to 38.61 rubles grew. In 2015, there was a leap of up to 61 rubles. Since then, the dollar has not fallen below 58 rubles (2017). In 2020, during the global crisis due to the pandemic, the dollar jumped up to 72 rubles. But this cannot be compared with what happened in February 2022, when the dollar reached 120 rubles.

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Currency courses are now not as interested in the Central Bank as strengthening the ruble. In his report, the regulator noted that now they are more concerned about “strengthening the ruble (due to the surplus of trade operations), which has reached two-year-old maximums for the dollar and almost five-year-olds”, that is, the primary task is to stabilize the financial system, and not a decrease in the course. .

It is now important for the country to restore the trade balance, and strengthening the ruble will help this. At the same time, such a policy of the Bank of Russia can negatively affect internal exporters. The Central Bank consciously proceeds to the support of importers. And henceforth will rely on indicators of the stability of the financial system, and not on the ruble. Accordingly, the regulator will weaken the measures of currency control on the basis of this.

After the new report, the forecasts of brokers also changed. For example, Sberinvestitions predict a fall in the dollar up to 50 rubles this year. In your opinion, is such an outcome of events or 50 rubles per dollar should not be counted?

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