The Ministry of Finance reduced the requirement for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporters to 50%. How will this affect the ruble and what to expect from the authorities?

Initially, the Central Bank generally proposed to cancel the mandatory sale of revenue for non -resource exporters, but apparently the government commission considered this excessive.

The new limit comes into force on May 24. To understand how this will affect the ruble, we can draw a small historical analogy.

Then

The fact is that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings is not a new phenomenon for Russia. Back in the 90s and early 00s, the government actively used these measures to support the ruble exchange rate.

In the period from 1992 to 1998, the sale percentage was 50%, and in the crisis in 1998 the percentage was increased to 75%. And already from 2001 to 2007 it gradually decreased. And in 2007, the requirements for the mandatory sale of currency revenue were completely canceled.

At the same time, the ruble during this period even managed to grow. But here the fact is that the increase in oil prices fully compensated for a decrease in the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings.

Now

Now the situation is different, because export income will decline. So this time, a decrease in the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings will lead to a weakening of the ruble (no one knows how much)

Most likely, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will strive to keep the dollar in comfortable marks for the budget (about 72-75 rubles).

Therefore, if the current decrease in the percentage of the sale of revenue to 50% will not loosen the ruble to these values, then they will continue to lower this percentage.

Sberbank analysts predicts that by the end of the month the ruble will weaken to 65 rubles per dollar. Also, the Ministry of Economic Development said that the strengthening of the ruble reached peak values.

Given all the factors, it is very likely that the current trend in the growth of the ruble is approaching its completion. By the way, the ruble grew over the past 10 weeks.

And in order to talk more accurately about the beginning of the turn, it is advisable to see at least one week when the ruble falls.

Import

Deputy. The head of the Federal Customs Service said that imports are currently corresponding to the levels of 2020. That is, according to his words, import fell by 30%.

In principle, the decrease is not so dramatic. But then it is not clear why the demand for currency is so small. And why then the customs service ceased to publish statistics.

Analysts based on customs services of other countries considered that imports to Russia fell by more than 50% (from $ 30 to $ 15 billion per month).

Probably, these data more precisely reflect reality. Nevertheless, the launch of parallel imports will help to correct this situation. And by the end of the year, imports will be restored from -50% to -35% (as the Central Bank predicts). Accordingly, the demand for the currency will grow.

Does the Central Bank buy the currency of exporters?

Recently there was news that the Central Bank is buying up the currency of exporters to contain a sharp strengthening of the ruble. However, the Central Bank denied this information.

The inability to influence the ruble by the Central Bank by the Central Bank is a big problem. Therefore, we now see such a huge volatility of the ruble and we will observe it further. Since without direct intervention of the Central Bank in bidding, it is impossible to keep the currency course in some specified range.

If now the Central Bank wants to weaken the ruble, then it lowers the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings, and if he wants to strengthen, then, on the contrary, it increases the percentage of sales of foreign exchange earnings. Also, the Central Bank can introduce and cancel the commission for the purchase of currency.

But these tools are very inaccurate. Therefore, there is a very small probability that the Central Bank really boughts the currency of exporters according to some left scheme. Perhaps he stores currency on the accounts of banks that have not fallen under sanctions.

In general, we are waiting for the closure of the week, perhaps this week we will see a U -turn.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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