In 2 days, the ruble collapsed by 17%. We have not yet seen such powerful collapses for all the strengthening of the ruble with 120 rubles. Is it really a full -fledged reversal, and the ruble will only fall further? Or is it just a strong rebound, and the ruble will still continue its growth?

💥 The main reason for the weakening of the ruble is the end of the payment of mining tax, which took place on May 25.

Now exporters no longer provide such support to the ruble as it was within a few days before May 25.

But next month they will also need to pay tax (June 25). Therefore, closer to this date, exporters will again begin to actively sell currency, only not 80% of the revenue, but only 50%.

💥 Also, on May 26, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation increased the term for the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters to 120 business days. Previously, this period was 3 days, then 60 and now 120 days.

The difference between 60 and 120 days is not so big, so this measure is unlikely to affect something.

💥 The main reason for the collapse of the ruble is a decrease in the key rate to 11% at an extraordinary meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Moreover, the planned meeting was supposed to take place only 15 days later, but, apparently, the situation required emergency measures. And, expectedly, the Central Bank acted aggressively - it lowered the rate by 3% at once (from 14% to 11%).

In principle, the Central Bank can afford this, since deflation began in Russia for the first time in a long time. From May 14 to May 20, prices decreased by 0.02%.

At the same time, the Central Bank also admits a further decrease in the key rate at the nearest meetings (the nearest meeting will be on June 10).

And Sberban analysts predict that at this meeting (in June) the Central Bank, reduce the rate by another 1% (up to 10%).

A decrease in the key rate negatively affects the ruble, but it does not act instantly, but with some delay. Therefore, this collapse of the ruble is more connected precisely with the end of the payment of personal income tax.

Also, after the meeting, Nabiullina made a number of statements, but she did not say something fundamentally new.

In general, there is nothing good for now. But in general, given such an unexpected unscheduled meeting of the Central Bank and its rhetoric to soften monetary policy and currency control, we understand that, most likely, it was the peak of strengthening the ruble (at least so wants the Central Bank of the Russian Federation).

In theory, it may happen that the ruble will continue to strengthen if the measures taken by the Central Bank are ineffective. But, I think that this will not happen, and we will no longer see 55 rubles per dollar.

However, this does not mean that the ruble is not yet able to grow (return to 59-60 rubles per dollar), since there are unclosed gaps.

In addition, from June 1, they will be allowed to buy currency with the shoulder, and there will be a lot of people who want to buy with the shoulder. But, probably, no one will let them earn. And based on this, there may be some kind of short-term growth of the ruble in order to eliminate speculators.

The only thing that can be said for sure about the ruble is that the volatility will be high, and we will observe the swing in both directions, since the Central Bank cannot conduct interventions.

Such volatility is negative for the economy. It would be good if the Central Bank would come up with some new mechanism, instead of foreign exchange interventions to stabilize the course.

But on the other hand, high volatility is good for those who trade.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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