What happened to our economy, what can happen to it in the future, and how will we get out of the situation?

Prologue

All this (accompanied by a sharp weakening of the ruble) led to a rapid change in prices for many goods and services and a significant increase in inflation.

Economics transformation in Russia

Against the background of large -scale sanctions and restrictions imposed on Russia, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation published a document on what the transformation of the economy can be.

From their point of view, the transformation of our economy (with long -playing external restrictions) will regress in the technological industry (despite the fact that there will be an increase in the production of investment and technology).

It is assumed that this transformation will pass through 4 stages:

Stage 1. Rupture of established technological, production and logistics chains.

Which is already happening now. When Russian importers can no longer import certain groups of goods (some of which are critically important), the established transport routes collapse.

At this stage, the scale of problems will be minimized. The tools that the state can use is subsidizing interest rates, a program of partial state guarantees, a decrease in taxes and deregulating economic activity.

2nd stage. Search for new suppliers.

At this stage, the role of small intermediary companies will increase, which will lead to a rise in import of imports. Also, employment in the affected industries will greatly decrease.

3rd stage. Industrialization based on the development of less advanced technologies.

For several years, partial import substitution of technology and production will occur. And, of course, in terms of technical and economic efficiency, they will concede previously achieved. The environmental friendliness of production will also decrease.

All this will lead to an increase in employment, since, it will take more employees to complete the tasks. But this will not significantly affect the level of wages (since the performance will be lower than in the previous time).

It will be very important, at the same time a difficult and long stage.

4th stage. Completion of perestroika.

At this stage, a new balance will be achieved. It is assumed that GDP growth can be both above and below the level of the last 10th anniversary.

So, the slogans about the high growth of the Russian economy in the future are, of course, good, but reality is most likely not so rainbow.

In general, now the Central Bank and the state consider it important to support the economy so that businesses survive.

They also believe that the mechanism of monetary policy becomes less effective than before (changing the key rate acts on the economy more slowly than in previous years).

Therefore, other methods will be used to support business and the population, for example, benefits, subsidies, etc.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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