On Friday (May 6), the ruble collapsed by 6% in a few hours. What is the current collapse: a rebound or a full -fledged reversal? And what awaits the ruble after the May holidays?

Friday collapse can be associated with negative information that came from the Ministry of Finance:

It turned out that additional oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation in April turned out to be less than waiting for 133 billion rubles (a month earlier, about 800 billion rubles were expected to receive in April), that is, the income was 17% lower than the forecast.

At the same time, in May they predict that additional oil and gas revenues will amount to about 400 billion rubles - this is 2 times lower than the forecast for April.

It is likely that even this forecast may not come true, and in May the income will be less than 400 billion rubles.

But the key word here is "additional." That is, these are income related to the excess of the current oil price over the one that was laid down in the budget. Therefore, this is not so scary, income is still high, just lower than the forecast.

Nevertheless, this may push the Central Bank to begin to weaken the ruble by reducing the percentage of the sale of foreign exchange earnings.

In addition, there is a fairly strong sign that oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation will continue. The fact is that the United States intends to buy 60 million barrels of oil to replenish its strategic reserve.

Reception of commercial offers will take place in the fall of 2022 to ensure the supply of oil in future years, when, as expected, prices will be much lower than now.

That is, the US Treasury is expected to reduce oil prices in 2023-2024. At the same time, now, on the contrary, they are actively selling oil from their strategic reserve.

From May to October, they plan to sell 180 million barrels - this is a lot (about 40% of the total reserve). And, most likely, the average sale price will turn out to be very high - more than $ 100 per barrel.

Obviously, they want to sell at a high price, and then buy back at cheap. Therefore, the price for them in 2023-2024 will be much lower than now.

On the other hand, if the EU introduces an oil embargo, it is not a fact that oil prices will fall. But, most likely, the US Ministry of Energy knows something and is not without reason to reduce oil prices.

Accordingly, a decrease in oil prices is a negative factor for the ruble exchange rate. But the decrease will not be now, but in the medium term.

Also, on May 6, Sbercib analysts presented a new ruble course forecast. At the end of 2022, they expect to see the dollar somewhere at the level of 75 rubles, and in May the strengthening of the ruble can reach 60 rubles.

At the same time, a month ago they also predicted that the average dollar exchange rate for a year will be 100 rubles. So they quickly changed their shoes.

But this, rather, suggests that the current trend for strengthening the ruble is coming to an end. As a rule, it is precisely at such moments when various analysts change their opinion, the media begin to actively spread this information, the mood of the masses changes, and a reversal occurs.

It is also interesting that the financial conditions index in Russia began to grow (already updated the March maximum). In March, along with the strengthening of the ruble, we saw a decrease in the index. But then, at some point, the index and the ruble exchange rate occurred.

And analysts note: the restoration of the ruble creates a false impression that the financial conditions are normalized (and the higher the index, the tougher the financial conditions). Such conditions are very negative for the economy and lead to its decline.

Although the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the key rate, and this was supposed to improve the conditions, but this did not happen. Apparently, other factors that are taken into account when calculating this index prevail.

Results

Still, we cannot unequivocally say whether it is a full-fledged reversal or just a rebound. This will become clear after the May holidays.

If the Central Bank reduces the percentage of sales of revenue for exporters in the coming week after the holidays, then the current trend for strengthening the ruble will end, and the ruble will begin to weaken.

If the Central Bank does not do this (or does much later), then the ruble can continue to strengthen (and traffic on Friday was only a rebound).

For today, thanks for your attention!

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