Is the dollar's chances to go to 50 rubles, and under what circumstances this can nevertheless happen.

In current conditions, forecasts are extremely difficult to do. Nevertheless, I understand that many of you need some logical guidelines.

To begin with, it is worth looking at the dollar schedule and understand what specifically determines at this stage such course dynamics.

Obviously, a very noticeable strengthening of the ruble has already occurred and even a rebound up is visible. It is known that the ruble is now supported by limiting measures from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Recently, the Central Bank softens these restrictive measures, but some (important) still remain. The key active restrictive measure is a mandatory sale of 50% of the foreign exchange earnings by exporters.

There are other restrictions, for example, on cross -border circuits of currency (including cash).

It was such restrictions that allowed the Central Bank at one time to effectively stop the rapid devaluation of the ruble - we observed this at the very peak of the dollar.

Nevertheless, despite the remaining restrictions, the dollar exchange rate is now determined mainly by the balance of currency flows from importers and exporters. And with the help of the remaining restrictions, the Central Bank is trying to adjust this course a little.

In this regard, it makes sense to focus on an important imported component of the current balance of course formation.

In practice, we see that the flow of imports cannot recover to the average levels. Therefore, few people still need a dollar.

Demand for non -cash currency (euro, dollar) is now limited. It is this alignment that creates a skew towards strengthening the ruble.

Despite the recent increase in the key rate and the weakening of currency regulation (after which the same noticeable bouncer of the dollar upwards was recorded), there was not any fundamentally little, which changed in terms of export/import balance sheet.

If the import begins to recover, then the course dynamics can become the opposite. Well, for now, sanctions, logistics restrictions, etc. are strongly inhibited by the restoration of imports, while the export exchange rate of the component has not yet managed to suffer much.

Even a partial embargo on Russian oil from the EU will not be able to quickly affect the incoming export flows of oil in the country.

And the price of oil from the threats of the embargo has already been noticeably rose. It was these events related to the embargo that increased the likelihood that the dollar will have the chances of the second bottom.

In general, the inhibitory restoration of imports and the temporarily increased export from the news on the embargo will increase the pressure on the dollar in the near future.

But problems with insurance of Russian oil tankers may intensify. Such problems have already arisen about a month ago. Now this situation can become mass, so the risks of rapid reduction in exports are also present.

Well, and later, the rejection of Russian oil will still begin to affect (maybe the price of oil will calm down).

By the way, I hope it is clear that over time, the dynamics of gas sales to Europe will also be negative. So far, Europe is not ready to do without Russian gas, and this will be especially visible at the beginning of winter. And then Russian volumes will begin to be gradually replaced by other deliveries.

Dollar for 50 rubles - myth or reality?

It may well become a reality, but it seems only at the beginning of summer. Then, such chances will decrease.

This will happen if the import does not begin to significantly grow, and the Central Bank, having removed all possible restrictions from the foreign exchange market, will not want to buy currency, as he did earlier according to the budget rule.

Now the budget rule does not work, and the currency does not go to the FNB (almost not withdrawn from the market). The point of accumulating the currency from the authorities disappeared along with the locking of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves.

And, if some temporary solution (such as the budget rule) is not invented during the period of significant problems with imports, then the dollar is able to go aside 50 rubles and below.

Result

The probability of lowering the dollar in the direction of 50 rubles is not very high, but still present.

It is important to remind the key point here-the financial authorities are definitely not needed by such a situation because of difficulties with filling the budget, and the main exporters also have no problem.

The Central Bank will clearly do something in the dollar, if it continues to fall. We all saw that the Central Bank actively began to support the dollar when it fell below 60 rubles.

And it is worth noting that much will also depend on geopolitics, and not only on the Central Bank and the restoration of imports.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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