Today you will find out why waiting for a dollar for 50 rubles is a big mistake.

The ruble has been strengthened for a long time. And after the rebound, many are again waiting for the return of the dollar to the level of 50-55 rubles. Let's discuss whether to wait for these levels.

As the key rate decreases, the attractiveness of the ruble is reduced, since, the money becomes cheaper, investing in OFZ under low rates uninteresting, there is an outflow of money from deposits.

Accordingly, purchasing activity is increasing, people begin to take loans, which leads to a weakening of the ruble.

The basic forecast is a decrease in the rate to 10%. But it is possible that the rate will be reduced to 9.5%.

In the future, the rate will be reduced more flexible-0.25-0.5%. In this case, there will no longer be an aggressive decrease in the rate. That is, the market predicts on the horizon of the year a decrease in the rate by 1.4% to 9.39%.

Further, the rate will also be at the level of 9%. Although I think that if the ruble exchange rate is preserved quite strong (below 90 rubles per dollar), it is possible that the Central Bank will lower the rate to 7.5-8%.

Because, now the Central Bank has a priority to preserve jobs, assistance to enterprises, economic growth. At least, it is necessary to stop the recession in the economy (for May, GDP fell by 3%).

But for the ruble exchange rate it is a negative, since cheap money, low rates always lead to a weakening of the national currency. In addition, now we are at the peak of energy prices (Brent oil now costs $ 120, and Urals is $ 96).

At the same time, as the Fed’s rate increases, economic activity will slow down, the economy will be included in the recession stage, which will lead to a drop in energy prices, as industrial production will decrease.

And already the end of the 3rd quarter (or by the end of 2022), perhaps we will see oil for $ 100. You can’t think that oil will be expensive for a long time.

Of course, one of the options under consideration now is high inflation for several years. But here everything will also depend on the policy of the Fed.

But in any case, the volumes of production and oil sales will fall - this will inevitably lead to a decrease in the oil and gas revenues of Russia. The Ministry of Finance also spoke about this - we are most likely at the peak of the budget surplus.

That is, now the currency revenues to Russia are now going on. And due to the limited demand for currency from the importers, we have strengthened the ruble, which cannot even restrain the Central Bank.

Also, the Central Bank can turn on the printing press. In this case, there will be a devaluation of the ruble. There will be more money and they will be depreciated.

In any case, the Central Bank does not like such a strong ruble, and now all measures are being taken in order to somehow weaken it.

It is possible that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings will be canceled by exporters. Raw exporters are required to sell 50%, for non -soured exporters this measure has already been canceled.

Initially, this measure was introduced in order to stabilize the ruble, but the ruble was more strengthened than expected.

In addition, our state earns money in dollars, and spends in rubles. He needs a certain ruble course in order to maintain the budget in a certain state. Also, import substitution is impossible with very strong currency, since the goods become less competitive, etc.

That is, a strong ruble is just as not beneficial to the Russian economy, like a weak ruble.

That is why after 3 months the rate will most likely exceed 75 rubles per dollar, and by the end of the year - 90 rubles per dollar. Sberic analysts predict in March 2023 a dollar of 100 rubles.

Such a course as it is now, most likely we will never see. That is why now it is possible and necessary to gradually buy a dollar.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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