Today we will talk about the prospects of the Russian market for the next 1-2 years, when it is worth entering it and what is its growth potential.

To begin with, let's look at the Mosbirzhi index (index of 50 largest Russian companies in rubles).

Although the market bounced from its minimums (February 24), which were only 1 day, we are much lower than we were before a special operation.

In rubles, promotions are now at the level of Pandemia of March 2020. And the RTS index (this is also the index of Russian shares, but already in dollars) feels much better. It has grown almost completely from February 24.

In dollars, Russian shares completely compensated for their fall. This, of course, happened by strengthening the ruble.

But in dollars it is very difficult to predict the dynamics of Russian shares, since the ruble exchange rate is extremely unstable, and it is quite difficult to predict the currency on the long-term horizon.

Therefore, we will not predict something on the RTS index, we will dwell on the index of the Moscow Exchange.

Growth drivers

The most important driver of the growth of any shares is the influx of money and dividends in them that provoke an influx of investors.

Many companies canceled dividends due to the negative impact of sanctions and interruptions in supply chains. Therefore, we did not see strong growth after the collapse.

From the entire Russian market, dividends paid Gazprom, Bashneft, Norikel, Tatneft and electric power industry, and some smaller companies or very modest dividends. Even Fosagro was canceled dividends.

Will there be dividends in 2023?

Most likely, most of the companies that canceled or transferred dividends in 2023 will pay dividends.

Obviously, Gazprom will pay in the region of 80-100 rubles, since the state needs money, and Gazprom is a state company.

Perhaps good divas will pay again Bashneft, Tatneft, Rosneft. Well, Sberbank can pay dividends, as well as metallurgists, which have now sank very much.

In general, in the 2nd half of 2022, recovery will begin, and already in 2023 the companies will pay dividends. Because, the companies have enough money now, that is, there are no problems with liquidity.

And with a high probability, in 2023 the Russian market will cost more (at 3,500 points) - at the level of February 16, 2022. That is, the growth is about 50%.

The main driver of growth will be dividends. And it is important to understand that the demand for Russian actions by internal players will only grow.

Since OFZ and bank deposits are already given low profitability, and many are afraid of investing in foreign shares through Russian brokers because of great risks.

What shares will grow and which ones not?

First of all, you need to focus on division. The company is interesting if it pays dividends above 10% per annum.

💥 Gazprom. Most likely, after Div. Shoots I will buy, since the dividend gap will be quickly closed.

With an average contract cost of gas for $ 500- $ 600, dividends will be around 80-100 rubles-this is about 30-35% per annum (if you buy with div.

But already in 2023-2024, the gas crisis will be nearing completion, investors will lay down lower dividends.

Nevertheless, with such dividends, Gazprom can grow to 400 rubles to the next year. If the key rate is 5-6%, then with such dividends the Gazprom shares can shoot up to 500-600 rubles.

💥 Lucil. A dividend aristocrat, it is now adjusted, since a strong ruble exchange rate negatively affects it, also, a possible embargo in 2023.

But Lukoil will pay good dividends in the region of 1000 rubles, because, at the moment, Urals oil costs around $ 100 (the average annual price is about $ 85).

Based on this cost of oil, Lukoil dividends will be in the region of 800-1000 rubles-26% per annum (if you buy Lukoil 3600 rubles).

Also, Lukoil can also launch a return ransom of shares, which will additionally support quotes.

Lukoil shares are expected to restore up to 6,000 rubles, when everything will work out. But there is a risk of embargo, so Gazprom looks more interesting.

💥metallurgists. MMK and NLMK can pay dividends, and even Severstal can pay, but the question is what they will be in size. After all, the price of metals falls, since the metal is supplied only to the domestic market due to the embargo.

As a result, profit, margin is reduced. Therefore, this year is not expected to expect large dividends.

I think metallurgists can pay about 15%. In any case, for the long -term, these are very high -quality businesses that can make good profit.

In 2023, they should grow, although the increase in the rate of the Fed and the recession may lead to additional correction of the shares of metallurgists. Therefore, always buy them with the possibility of averaging.

💥 Yandex. Here everything is pessimistic, and it is difficult to predict anything, since the company does not pay dividends and has foreign registration (which it does not plan to change).

Perhaps there will be some sanctions from the EU and the USA, since Yandex is associated with the state. Also, there is a fall in profit, an increase in operating expenses. At the same time, the advertising market in Russia sank very much.

Of course, there are advantages, for example, Google left Russia. But there are still more minuses. Yandex is now very cheap regarding its financial indicators (-80% of its maximums).

Now Yandex shares cost 1,400 rubles, but they can adjust up to 700-1000 rubles. Serious purchases will begin at these levels, with the calculation of a rebound of up to 1,500-2000 rubles.

Yandex will not go anywhere-this is the largest Russian IT company. But who wants to invest in it? Previously, foreigners invested in it, but now there are only internal investors who will not buy Yandex, since there are no dividends.

💥 Uglings. Discon, Mechel - there is nothing good here, because their peak has been passed. Disfadd dividends did not pay (and in 2023, most likely they will be much less than expected this year).

💥MTS. There will be no particular movements. Because, we have a key rate, and MTS has a high debt load, and operating expenses are growing.

💥Theleilers. Here the dividends can pay a magnet. But the great growth potential is also not visible, since the purchasing power of the population is reduced, the margin of business falls and there are still high rates (it is difficult to develop business).

💥 Polymetal, X5 Retail, Rusagro - they can pay dividends in 2023 (50 to 50). This year, polymetall approved 90 rubles per share (about 20% per annum), but it cannot pay them due to sanctions.

We hope that these companies will soon solve the issue of re -registration.

💥 Banks. Sberbank may pay dividends, but they will be low. VTB and Tinkoff will not pay dividends. It makes no sense to keep VTB at all.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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