What should we do, buy or sell dollars? What awaits us?

If we consider July, then I agree with Gref, who said that we are not far from the peaks of strengthening the ruble. It is important that the dollar is 54 rubles or 48 rubles, but that we are already not far from the bottom. Where no one will tell you the bottom, but the fact remains - the dollar is now very cheap.

Buying options for dollars:

Ministry of Finance VS Central Bank

Siluanov wants to collapse the ruble, even sacrifice budget money and over -time.

He wants to make foreign exchange interventions, but to buy not a dollar or euro, but Yuan, Rupia and other friendly currencies and actually collapse through them.

Nabiullina says that it is not necessary to do so sharply, no need to artificially climb into the market. She says that when imports will be restored and export decrease, then according to market conditions this will happen.

That is, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation tell us that there will be a fall in the ruble, but it is not known what methods and how quickly it will all happen.

They, of course, have disputes, but I believe that Nabiullina will win. Recently, she defeats Siluanov. Since, he has long wants to bring the ruble into normal significance, but Nabiullina does not want to.

The bottom of the import has passed

The bottom of the import was in April - 50% lower from normal last year's values. In May, he began to recover by 4-5%, and in June amounted to 40% of last year's values.

There is a rapid restoration of imports on consumer goods. Ozon, Wildberries, Mvideo and others. Products bring here, helps them with parallel imports.

But there are huge problems in other industries. Giant problems, for example, with an import of cars. In May there was a fall by 97%.

Also, a big blow fell on the Russian Railway. Many said that we will have problems with airplanes, so we will ride trains. But statistics show the fall in the production of passenger cars - in May it decreased by 60%. That is, most of the components of Russian Railways are also imported.

Some industries will be restored more slowly than others, but it is clear that the general import will slowly recover.

But we have not passed the peak of export falling. Therefore, with a high probability, now is the best moment to buy a dollar. But it is important to buy it very carefully.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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