About a month ago, the Ministry of Finance, represented by Anton Siluanova, began to promote a new budget rule. Its goal is to stop the confident strengthening of the ruble so as not to experience problems with filling the country's budget in rubles.

The budget rule (until March 2022) was to withdraw an excess of currency in the FNB from the foreign exchange market - it was this mechanism that made the dollar to be predictable and held it at a comfortable level to fill the budget.

But due to the blocking of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves, the budget rule was stopped. And the Ministry of Finance now wants to return it in one form or another.

Siluanov a month ago even proposed a specific mechanism, and said that the implementation would need a long transition period. From his last statements: "We plan to purchase a currency for revenue from the sale of oil at a price of over $ 60 per barrel."

Apparently, the Ministry of Finance will spend these extra dollars on the purchase of currencies of friendly countries. Thus, extra dollars will leave the currency market, and the dollar exchange rate will begin to be adjusted towards the long -awaited increase.

But it is worthwhile to understand that such a mechanism is likely to be temporary, since, a gradual restoration of imports is expected, and with it the demand for the dollar, the euro for international trade.

After a significant restoration of this demand, the need for a new budget rule will significantly decrease. It is possible that until the end of the month, they will decide something, and we will be introduced to the new temporary budget rule.

But not everything is so simple there, there are discussions between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The latter to oppose any actions that control the exchange rates, and the currencies of friendly countries have specific risks.

My own observation

At the level of the dollar, about 55 rubles, various verbal interventions appear - they begin to actively talk about the budget rule and about other possible measures to support the dollar.

I think that the financial authorities do not seek to launch an intervention mechanism using the budget rule. First of all, because it is a lot of money that will not work.

In the budget, so a drama is planned, and then there are interventions. The authorities seem to simply be dragging time and are waiting for the growth of imports. And so that the course does not fall, try to support it at least in words. At the same time, they have already shown in practice that they can hold it.

It turns out that on the one hand, everything goes to the new budget rule. And on the other hand, it may not go further than words.

For example, if in August-September the volume of imports begins to recover already, then the case may not reach currency interventions.

About August wrote in more detail here.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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