Will a full devaluation will begin, or will the ruble still grow up?

The main event of the outgoing week was the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at a key rate. According to the results of the meeting, the Central Bank decided to lower the key rate by 1.5% immediately (from 9.5% to 8%).

At the same time, most analysts expected to reduce the rate by only 0.5%. And such an unexpected solution for the market briefly affected the ruble exchange rate and weakened it a little.

But to the greater extent, the key rate now has little effect on the ruble. Therefore, do not attach much importance to it (in the context of the ruble exchange rate).

It is more important that Putin instructed to submit proposals for adjusting the budget rule until July 25. That is, to be a new budget rule and probably in the near future.

In principle, the Central Bank does not mind. Nabiullina believes that the course should remain floating. At the same time, she does not deny the possibility of foreign exchange interventions - they are also possible with a floating course, but within the framework of the budget rule.

If we take the parameters of the budget rule originally proposed by the Ministry of Finance, then the volume of interventions will be quite modest by the standards of the foreign exchange market.

Sber analysts considered that at a price of $ 60 per barrel, currency purchases can be about $ 4-5 billion per month. For comparison, on the exchange only with the dollar, transactions in the amount of $ 1.5-2 billion are performed daily.

Therefore, the interventions will not be able to greatly weaken the ruble. And Sberban analysts believe that interventions can cause a weakening of the ruble by 10-15% to 60-65 rubles per dollar.

In general, next week we will already find out the parameters of the budget rule, and there it will become clear how much the ruble can weaken.

But do not forget that next week there will still be an increased supply of currency in the market due to the ongoing tax period.

Therefore, even despite the fact that next week the parameters of the budget rule will be announced, some kind of strengthening of the ruble is still possible.

The last tax will be paid July 28, so the ruble strengthening until July 27-28 has a place to be. And already on July 28-29, the ruble will most likely begin to weaken.

I think that the ruble can grow as much as possible next week - this is 55 rubles per dollar. And banks analysts predict the dollar range of 55-60 rubles.

Nabiullina made several important statements at the press conference of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation:

💥 The most important of them is that the Central Bank will extend the currency restrictions in September (the issuance of cash currency to individuals) - this was expected, since banks have nowhere to take cash.

💥 But, as Nabiullina noted, cash dollars in Russia will be applied even with the apocalyptic scenario itself. Moreover, Russians own cash dollars and euros in the amount of about $ 85 billion.

💥 Crime, the Central Bank presented its new medium -term inflation forecast. According to the new forecast, in 2022 inflation will be 12-15%, not 14-17% (as previously expected).

💥Aa the fall in GDP will be 4-6%, not 8-10% (as previously predicted). But the forecast of GDP for 2023, on the contrary, worsened.

💥I, as Nabiullina notes, the economic decline will be more stretched in time and, possibly, less deep than previously expected.

💥A, as for future meetings of the Central Bank, Nabiullina said that the potential for further reducing the rate on the medium -term horizon is preserved, but everything will depend on the incoming data - the nearest meeting of the Central Bank will be on September 16.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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