Today we will discuss the release of non -residents from friendly countries to the Russian stock market. How will this affect Russian actions?

From August 8, non -residents of friendly countries (21 countries) will be able to buy and sell shares on the Moscow Exchange.

Non -residents of unfriendly countries will also be able to buy and sell shares, but only if the beneficiary of this situation will be residents of friendly countries or Russia.

Of course, this is positive for investors from Kazakhstan, Belarus, neighboring and far abroad countries. Many invested in the Russian market through Russian brokers and foreign brokers.

How will this affect the Russian stock market?

Here the situation is twofold. In the short term, most likely, we will see a drain of shares, why?

Because the shares were frozen for a very long time. From that moment the situation has changed a lot. Many companies worsened the financial situation, most companies do not publish their reports, and dividends were not paid.

Many investors will want to sell Russian actions. Therefore, in my opinion, in August the Russian stock market will be hard. Of course, there will be no panic sales, but for 2-3 weeks, Russian shares will be under pressure.

It is not known what percentage of Russian shares belongs to investors from friendly countries. But, given that 70-75% of the shares belongs to non-residents-of which approximately 25-30% of the shares belong to non-residents from friendly countries.

This is a very large volume. Despite the fact that now liquidity in the Russian market is very small (since there is no access for non-residents, most of the shares still belong to American and European investors).

Investors from these countries do not trade on the Moscow Exchange-because of this, if friendly investors begin to sell shares, a rather strong strait may happen.

What levels can the Russian stock market fall?

The first level is 2000 points; The second level is 1800 points (-18% of current values). And, probably, this fall is realized within 1 month. Below these levels, most likely, we will not fall. Well, perhaps we’ll fly away by 1,500, but this is unlikely.

Of course, there is a chance that non -residents will begin to pay off Russian actions. But, I think that this will happen pointwise and, most likely, not now.

It is more likely, non -residents will begin to pay off Russian actions closer to the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023, when the situation with dividends is already more clear.

And what will happen in the long run?

The release of non -residents is a positive for the Russian market. Because, non -residents from friendly countries will have the opportunity to invest in Russian actions.

And, when rumors about the dividends of Russian companies begin, then the Russian market can begin to grow very well, as non -residents will redeem the Russian stock market.

Of course, the reputation of the Russian market is strongly spoiled by the current situation, but there will always be greedy investors who want to invest in a risky market to get high dividends. And now the forecast for the dividends of Russian companies is about 12%.

What to do investors?

It is worth observing diversification. Invest most of the funds in foreign assets through foreign brokers.

Part of the investment can be invested in the Russian market in August, when non -residents will enter.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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