The ruble demonstrated good growth in the moment (strengthened by 5%). Is this a temporary rebound or the beginning of a new fortification?

According to the results of last week, the ratio of long and short positions in the pair of the ruble/dollar was 82 by 18, and this week the ratio was 79 by 21.

That is, the number of Longs was slightly reduced, but 79% is still a lot, so the growth of the ruble can continue.

Also, this collapse of the dollar is already too large to say that this is just a correction.

As part of the last growth of the dollar, correction was usually much weaker than the current one. Therefore, perhaps this is not just a rebound, but a change of trend. And, probably, this tendency to weaken the dollar will last several days.

Also, on August 1, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation published a report on monetary policy, which stated that the basic scenario of the Central Bank involves the resumption of the mechanism of the budget rule since 2023.

Pretty ambiguous information, since many market participants laid down that the budget rule would work in August or September of this year.

Forecast under the basic scenario of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

The Central Bank expects that inflation in 2022 will be 12-15% (inflation of 15-17% was previously predicted). In 2023, inflation will be 5-7%, and in 2024 inflation will return to the target level of 4%.

GDP in 2022 will fall by 4-6% (the fall was previously predicted by 8-10%). In 2023, the fall will be 1-4%, and in 2024 an increase of 1.5-2.5%is expected.

The average key rate from July 25 to the end of 2022 is predicted in the range of 7.4-8%. At the moment, the key rate is 8%, so another small decline by 0.5% until the end of 2022 has a place to be.

Payment of payment balance

Payment of the payment balance will decrease. If in 2022 a surplus of $ 240 billion is projected, then already in 2023 the surplus will be 2 times less - about $ 125 billion. And in 2024 the surplus will fall even more - will be $ 50 billion.

Basically, the surplus will decrease due to the drop in exports, as well as, due to the restoration of imports. And, of course, such a dynamics on the payment balance will lead to a weakening of the ruble in the future for several years.

In principle, export has already fallen (especially gas exports). Recently, Gazprom reported a decrease in production and export. According to the results of 7 months of 2022, production decreased by 12%, and exports fell by 35%.

However, this refers to exports in cubic meters. In monetary terms, the situation is much better.

Back to the short -term situation

I believe that this growth of the ruble can continue for 1-2 days, since so far there is a lot of long-positions on the market.

On the other hand, now there is a drop in oil prices, which is a negative factor for the ruble. The price of Brent oil is again approached the level of $ 100 per barrel.

It is highly likely that oil will break through this level and will go below to $ 85 per barrel. Therefore, the continuation of the growth of the ruble is quite limited.

I think the ruble can grow to 58 rubles per dollar in the coming days. There is no reason for a stronger strengthening.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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