Today we will talk about how a drop in European gas prices will affect the shares of Gazprom.

The cost of gas fell below $ 1000 - this is due to the filling of gas storages by more than 90% in most European countries.

In addition, LNG reserves have grown (in addition to pipe gas storages, there is also liquefied gas). Also, the share of wind generation from 13.5% to 17%/month has also increased - this also contributed to a decrease in gas demand by the EU.

Another factor (albeit short -term) is warming (warm autumn is predicted in Europe). October is already much warmer than previous October - this plays an important role in gas consumption. Since when the temperature in Europe is lower, gas consumption and its price (and vice versa) grow.

That is, now all the conditions for removing overheating from gas quotes have been formed.

Gazprom shares

After a dividend cut, there was no powerful rebound, we have a narrow sidewall 157-167 rubles per share.

Of course, hundreds of news will appear on Gazprom, and all of them will somehow affect the shares of Gazprom and create additional prices. If you are not ready for this and a 10-20% loss for you is already a disaster, then you are contraindicated in Gazprom.

Gazprom is a paper for more aggressive investors focused on a higher level of risk.

Gazprom has potential (with a horizon of 1 year), although it has significantly decreased due to the fact that Gazprom’s profit in the 2nd half of the half will be much less than in the 1st (northern streams are blocked).

But my opinion is that nevertheless, at the end of the year, gas pipelines will be repaired (or at least there will be some clarity about the repair of gas pipelines). Against this background, Gazprom shares can grow to 220-240 rubles.

An extremely important risk for Gazprom is judicial claims against him. Now, for example, the Czech Republic is preparing a lawsuit that, due to the interruptions in gas supplies, she lost hundreds of $ million.

If such claims come from a large number of countries, then with a probability of 90%, the European court will satisfy them, and Gazprom will force them to pay this money.

For Gazprom, the European market is key, and it will pay these fines. Accordingly, the company will have less money, which means that dividends will be much lower.

Also, Macron recently stated that the European Union needs to be prepared for the fact that countries can spend the next winter without Russian gas.

He stated that we must rather bring down the price of gas and at the same time be able to go through the winter 2023-2024. The European Union really managed to bring down the price.

This was achieved due to the increase in stocks in the gas storage of Europe. Maybe to some extent, this is a temporary measure, nevertheless, prices will fall-this is definitely.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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