Today we will talk about the real estate market, and whether we should wait for the collapse of the real estate market in 2023.
When this news was released, the demand for real estate sharply jumped (16%). But it is important to understand that such a demand will stay until December, since people see that the preferential mortgage ends and they need to urgently buy.
What will happen after the New Year, of course, is very difficult to say. But according to the forecasts of many analysts, the real estate market will decrease by 20-30%.
That is, they tell us directly that the real estate market in Russia will be blown away. And, by the way, this applies not only to Russia, for example, a collapse in the real estate market began in China, in the USA a record drop in housing prices during October.
Next year, blowing up the real estate market will most likely continue.
Interesting data on the rental of real estate (in Moscow): the proposal of renting apartments is growing record, and while the growth does not stop - in September there were 28.5 thousand offers, in November there are already 47.7 thousand and the more proposals, the gradually they will begin Reduce rental prices.
In St. Petersburg, in Belgorod, Kursk, the situation is similar. In Sochi, it seems that, too, prices began to decline slightly, but somehow slightly.
And, for example, in the Rostov region. On the contrary, a boom for rent and housing prices began. This is due to the fact that the largest number of Ukrainians flee to the Rostov region.
Lending situation
When the Central Bank said that he would blow the real estate market, he spoke not only about mortgages - it was, in general, about loans.
Now many Russians have been in the debt hole, and the Central Bank said that the situation begins to threaten the structural restructuring of the economy. People climb into loans - the percentage of people who re -take loans growing all the time.
And if now not to blow out the situation with mortgages, loans, then there will be the risks of the formation of bubbles that will abruptly burst - which will very much harm the economy.
From next year it will be harder to take a mortgage and a loan for good conditions. Limits will be set, as there are citizens who send more than 80% of earnings every month for payments on debts.
But there is a problem in the fact that the real income of Russians fall. Inflation is raging, prices are rising. There is a massive impoverishment of Russians taking into account the growth of loans, and the Central Bank, of course, does not like everything.
Therefore, if you wanted to take a mortgage or loan, it is better to do it now, because after the new year the situation can be much harder.
What will happen to the shares of developers?
Honestly, I am more worried about investments in the shares of Russian developers, and not in physical real estate.
For example, the plane company interests me most of the Russian developers. The company is associated mainly with the Moscow region, where the beginning of failure is already observed.
Therefore, if in 2023 this failure will continue, then perhaps I will continue to buy shares of the plane.
The first half of 2023, perhaps there will be really a failed real estate market, in particular for developers - especially in Moscow.
Therefore, it is interesting in the future to see a large drawdown on the aircraft and buy more shares. What kind of subsidence will definitely not say.
But, according to the words by Nabiullina, the subsidence of the real estate market will be about 20-30%, so the shares can decrease within these numbers.
For today, thanks for your attention!
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