It is no secret that in recent months, Russia has an unpleasant situation for the country's budget.

There was an imbalance of imports/exports due to sanctions prohibitions that brought down imports. The volume of purchases abroad (especially in Europe) has decreased greatly.

Accordingly, Russia began to spend less currency on foreign trade operations. And it seems to be good for the budget (more money remains in the country), but not everything is so simple.

The fact is that the country's budget is filled mainly from the sale of energy for currency. Namely, the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro decreased from the same imbalance of export and imported currency flows-which reduced the receipt of rubles from the sale of foreign currency revenue to the country's budget.

A hole was formed in the budget. And there is nothing good in that. The financial authorities are aware of the complexity of the state of affairs with the filling of the budget. Moreover, they realize this for a long time.

Therefore, gradually new measures of response to budget problems appear. Simply put, they look for and find additional alternative sources of replenishment of the treasury.

How and due to what will the resulting hole be closed in the budget?

It is already obvious from the draft budget (and simply logically) that now and the coming years, financing of the budget deficit will be carried out mainly through the use of the liquid part of the FNB and internal state borrowing.

But there are nuances. The fact is that Russia cannot be used directly now due to freezing international reserves. And this means that the use of the FNB should now be understood as ruble emission, which increases the money supply.

Accordingly, an increase in the money supply presses on the ruble and is a pre -inflationary factor. This does not mean that such emission behavior will sharply loosen the ruble and increase inflation. But you still need to understand that the situation will develop in this direction.

It is logical, it would be possible to close the hole in the budget (at least partially) with the devaluation of the ruble. A lot of words have already been said about the new budget rule, but it has not yet gone beyond the words.

However, it is possible that next year the currency interventions with friendly currencies aimed at the growth of the course of these currencies can still appear next year.

Such a management of currency courses is fraught with some potential problems, so they are in no hurry with this business.

Nevertheless, the budget deficit must somehow be closed, so they will continue to close the hole in the budget by increasing the tax burden on the population and the business.

In November, the federal budget revenues increased by 31% g/g. In the first time, this was influenced by one -time payments of Gazprom by 1 trillion rubles. Beliekh budget revenues would decrease for the 5th month in a row. That is, the budget hole is already closed.

And even the increase in the cost of housing and communal services is all to increase the filling of the country's budget. Even the introduction of the commission for non-cash banking business operations is discussed-this, in general, will affect all businesses (but these are just words).

In general, probably, you already understand at the expense of whom the budget deficit will be adjusted. The prospects are not very, but let's hope for the best.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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