Hello, dear investors! In this issue, we will talk about what awaits Russian investors in 2023, will it be successful in terms of dividends? And what dividend shares should be considered for investment.

📌 Nornikel

Probably everyone heard about the corporate conflict between Norilsk Nickel and Rusal, which will last next year.

At the end of 2022, the joint -stock agreement ends between the two largest shareholders of Norilsk Nickel - Potanin and Rusal. The future of Norilicel dividends remains a mystery.

Vladimir Potanin has repeatedly declared a desire to reduce dividends and invest in development. And Rusalu is vital for money from Norilika dividends to maintain his business.

There is also the head of Norilika - Vladimir Potanin fell under sanctions and, perhaps, already in 2023 he will have to leave his chair.

It seems that the situation between these companies is only heating up. Either information appears in the media about the merger of these two companies, then Rusal suits Vladimir Potanin with accusations of the manager’s insolvency, and with a demand to appoint an independent third part as a leader.

And then Norickel announced a significant increase in the investment program - which can significantly reduce dividends.

The decision on the future of the cash flows of the Norilikel can make a lot of noise in the investment community and significantly affect the quotes of Norilsk Nickel and Rusal (and on EN+, as this is the mother’s company Rusala).

📌MTS

MTS is a telecommunications giant. This company is a classic example of a dividend cow. Investors are expected from the company of stable cash flow from the payment of dividends.

With a high probability, in the spring of 2023 a new dividend policy will be adopted, which can affect not only the size of future dividends, but also the perception of MTS shares by investors.

On the one hand, the largest shareholder of the company is an AFK system that is very important to the large dividend payments of MTS to finance own transactions and servicing debt.

On the other hand, recently MTS profitability has decreased significantly. The revenue is stable, but the growth is minimal. At the same time, MTS debt is at a high level. Therefore, the probability of paying high dividends is reduced.

The adopted dividend policy will be valid for the next 3 years. Councils of shares will actively respond to news about a new dividend policy.

I believe that the level of dividend payments can be reduced relative to past reporting periods. And only if the company over the next 3 years finds business growth points and normalizing financial receipts, then we can already talk about the restoration of dividends.

Preservation of dividends at the same level will be a gift for investors. The risk of establishing minimal dividend payments is quite high.

📌 Moskovskoy exchange

The company refused to pay dividends due to limited conditions for doing business and economic uncertainty.

But this does not indicate the non -payment of dividends in the future. For example, Lukoil did not rush with a decision on dividends, but then paid money to shareholders at once for several past reporting periods.

The Moscow exchange is fine with the business (based on its last report). Despite the decreasing volumes of trading, the increase in commissions compensates for these losses.

Mosbirzha becomes a monopolist in the exchange market of Russia, since a number of tough restrictions are imposed on its main competitor - St. Petersburg exchange.

Mosbirzha still holds payments, but when clarifying the geopolitical and economic situation, there is a high probability of a major one -time payment following the results of past reporting periods.

Most importantly, the company has something to pay from - commission income and net profit of the company at the proper level. The income of the Moscow Exchange is restored after a shock 1st half of the year.

Given a sharp decrease in the volume of trading, the company was able to maintain income at an acceptable level.

I dare to assume that clarity with dividends will be in the 1st half of 2023. The news about the payment of dividends can be a strong driver of the company's shares.

📌 Banks

The main intrigue of the next year is, of course, the reporting and dividends of the banking sector.

The banking sector received a huge damage in early 2022, falling under the sanctions rink: freezing assets, a ban on operations, outflow of deposits from the banking system.

But the latest data indicates the release of the sector from the peak. The probability of the profit of the banking sector for the year is quite real. But even more important, preserve profitable dynamics next year.

Sber and Tinkoff can be distinguished from banks, which, with a high probability, will be profitable in the reporting period. Sber even conducts talk about dividends to which the market positively reacts.

And with VTB Bank you need to be careful. VTB does not publish financial statements - which is an indirect indicator of problems. According to the head of VTB, the company has a loss this year, the size of which can only be guessed.

VTB completes the transaction for the purchase of the opening bank. The situation is complicated by the assessment of opening assets that do not differ in their quality (and the VTB itself has enough problem assets). VTB is under blocking sanctions. The bank has frozen assets for 600 billion rubles.

At the same time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation suggests that the situation in the banking sector has stabilized, the main banks do not need the support of the regulator - they retained capital and fulfill the requirements of the Central Bank by its sufficiency.

📌 builders

While the government was thinking about the fate of mortgage programs (the sharp reduction of which could hurt the developers), the president decided for it - he extended and expanded the preferential mortgage programs before the summer of 2024.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has always noted that the construction sector is very important for the economy in terms of employment and resource intensity.

At the same time, the Central Bank noted that developers are currently sitting on a mortgage needle - and this situation is not healthy.

The construction companies do not have enough money for their projects, information appears about the suspension or transfer of some projects by developers, the structure and volume of demand in the market have changed.

The lack of money is discussed by proposals for transferring or canceling dividends. For example, the company offers the company to transfer dividends for 9 months2022 for the next year.

Developers are not in the best position at the moment. Preservation of preferential mortgage programs will help to support pants, but in conditions of decreasing solvent demand, you should not wait.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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